Energy and Environmental Analysis (EEA) uses its Gas Market Data and Forecasting
System to track and analyze monthly behavior in the North American natural gas
market. At the heart of the system is a comprehensive gas transmission network
that solves for natural gas supply and demand for the U.S., Canada, and northern
Mexico. Specifically, the model solves for monthly natural gas production and
demand, storage injections and withdrawals, pipeline flows, natural gas prices,
locational basis, and seasonal basis for a very detailed natural gas pipeline
network comprised of 91 nodes (or market hubs). Results are available at the node
level. In the power generation sector, the model solves for monthly electricity
demand, power generation by type of fuel, generating capacity additions, and fuel
use.
The model simulates monthly behavior out to 2020, considering the impact of:
- Weather
- Economic Growth Rates
- Growth Rates for Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Gas Demand
- Growth Rates for Electricity Demand
- Oil and Coal Prices
- Power Generating Capacity
- Nuclear Retirements/Additions
- Limitations/Environmental Restrictions on Coal Unit Capacity Utilization
- Gas Supply Capability (Deliverability)
- Gas Pipeline and Storage Expansions
- LNG Imports/Exports
- Mexican Imports/Exports
- Seasonal LNG Requirements
EEA has developed a user interface and post-processor to simplify the creation
of scenario input and speed up output processing.
The Gas Market Data and Forecasting System was used to complete the 1999 study
on the North American Gas Market for the National Petroleum Council, and is used
annually to complete the GRI Baseline Projection. The model was also used to
complete the 30 Tcf analysis for INGAA in 1998. The system has been widely used
by gas producers, pipelines, electric utilities, independent power providers,
and LDCs for internal strategic planning. In addition, the model has been
licensed for internal use by one company, and is being used successfully for
their strategic planning.
To support customer-specific facilities planning, EEA augments its market-hub
analysis provided by the Gas Market Data and Forecasting System with intra-hub
analysis of supply and demand and comprehensive facilities analysis.
